Consistency of Forecasts for the U.S. House of Representatives

11/29/2018

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by   Henry Bendekgey, et al.

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We consider the performance of the foremost academic House of Representatives forecasting models in the 2018 elections. In creating open-source implementations of these models, we outline key underlying assumptions. We find that although the results were unsurprising, they indicate a weakening of many traditional forecasting indicators.