Data Driven Modeling of Projected Mitigation and Suppressing Strategy Interventions for SARS-COV 2 in Ghana

In the midst of pandemic for respiratory illness, the call for non-pharmaceutical interventions become the highest priority for infectious disease and public health experts, while the race towards vaccine or medical intervention are ongoing. Individuals may modify their behavior and take preventative steps to reduce infection risk in the bid to adhere to the call by government officials and experts. As a result, the existence of relationship between the preliminary and the final transmission rates become feeble. This study evaluates the behavioral changes (mitigation and suppression measures) proposed by public health experts for COVID-19 which had altered human behavior and their day to day lives. The dynamics underlying the mitigation and suppression measures reduces the contacts among citizens and significantly interfere with their physical and social behavior. The results show all the measures have a significant impact on the decline of transmission rate. However, the mitigation measures might prolong the elimination of the transmission which might lead to a severe economic meltdown, yet, a combination of the measures show a possibility of rooting out transmission within 30 days if adhered to in an extreme manner. The result shows a peak period of infection for Ghana ranges from 64th day to 74th day of infection time period.


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