Fixing Match-Fixing
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In the soccer World Cup, at the group stage, before the knock-out stage, games whose outcome has no impact for qualification are played with little enthusiasm. If a team is already qualified when playing its last game, different factors come into play so that winning may not be in its best interest. More critically, it is not unusual that a simple draw secures the qualification for both teams. Any situation in which the two opposing teams do not play competitively is detrimental to the sport, and can lead to collusion and match-fixing opportunities. The paper first develops a method to analyze the format of the World Cup group stage and its competitiveness. We then propose changes to the current format in order to increase the stakes in the last round of games of the group stage, reducing collusion opportunities and making games more exciting to watch. We use the same method to evaluate the "groups of 3" format which may be introduced in the 2026 World Cup edition, as well as a "groups of 5" format.
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