Optimal Best-Arm Identification Methods for Tail-Risk Measures
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Conditional value-at-risk (CVaR) and value-at-risk (VaR) are popular tail-risk measures in finance and insurance industries where often the underlying probability distributions are heavy-tailed. We use the multi-armed bandit best-arm identification framework and consider the problem of identifying the arm-distribution from amongst finitely many that has the smallest CVaR or VaR. We first show that in the special case of arm-distributions belonging to a single-parameter exponential family, both these problems are equivalent to the best mean-arm identification problem, which is widely studied in the literature. This equivalence however is not true in general. We then propose optimal δ-correct algorithms that act on general arm-distributions, including heavy-tailed distributions, that match the lower bound on the expected number of samples needed, asymptotically (as δ approaches 0). En-route, we also develop new non-asymptotic concentration inequalities for certain functions of these risk measures for the empirical distribution, that may have wider applicability.
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