Statistically-based methodology for correcting delay-induced errors on the evaluation of COVID-19 pandemic
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COVID-19 pandemic has reshaped our world in a timescale much shorter than what we can understand. Particularities of SARS-CoV-2, as its persistence in surfaces and the lack of a cure for COVID-19, have pushed authorities to apply restrictive policies to control its spreading. As data drove most of the decisions made in this global contingency, its quality is a critical variable for decision-making actors, and therefore should be carefully curated. In this work, we analyze the sources of error in the typically reported epidemiologic variables and the different tests used for diagnosis, and their impact on our understanding of COVID-19 spreading dynamics. We address the existence of different delays in the report of new cases, induced by the incubation time of the virus and testing-diagnosis time gaps, and other error sources related to the sensitivity/specificity of the tests used to diagnose COVID-19. By a statistically-based algorithm, we perform a temporal reclassification of cases to avoid delay-induced errors, building up new epidemiologic curves centered in the day where the contagion effectively occurred. We also statistically enhance the robustness behind the discharge/recovery clinical criteria in the lack of a direct test, which is typically the case of non-first world countries, where the limited testing capabilities are fully dedicated to the evaluation of new cases. Finally, we applied our methodology to assess the evolution of the pandemic in Chile through the Basic Reproduction Number R_0, identifying different moments in which data was misleading governmental actions. Doing so, we aim to raise public awareness of the need for proper data reporting and processing protocols.
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