Drug dissemination strategy with a SEIR-based SUC model
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According to features of drug addiction, this paper constructs a SEIR-based SUC model to describe and predict the spread of drug addiction. Predictions are that the number of drug addictions will continue to fluctuate with a reduced amplitude and eventually stabilize. To seek the fountainhead of heroin, we identified the most likely origins of drugs in Philadelphia, PA, Cuyahoga and Hamilton, OH, Jefferson, KY, Kanawha, WV, and Bedford, VA. Based on the facts, advised concentration includes the spread of Oxycodone, Hydrocodone, Heroin and Buprenorphine. In other words, the drug transmission in the two states of Ohio and Pennsylvania require awareness. According to the propagation curve predicted by our model, the transmission of KY state is still in its early stage, while that of VA, WV is in the middle point, and OH, PA in its latter ones. Hereby the number of drug addictions in KY, OH, and VA is projected to increase in three years. For methodology, with Principal component analysis technique, 22 variables in socioeconomic data related to the continuous use of opioid drugs was filtered, where the 'Relationship' Part deserves highlight. Based on them, by using K-means algorithm, 464 counties were categorized into three basket. To combat opioid crisis, detailed action will be discussed in the sensitivity analysis section. After modeling and analytics, innovation is require to control addict and advocate anti-drug news campaigns. This part also verified the effectiveness of model when d_1<0.2; r_1,r_2,r_3<0.3; 15<β_1,β_2,β_3<25. In other words, if such boundary exceeded, number of drug addictions may rocket and peak in a short period.
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