Estimating COVID-19 cases and reproduction number in Mexico

07/17/2020

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by   Michelle Anzarut, et al.

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In this report we fit a semi-mechanistic Bayesian hierarchical model to describe the Mexican COVID-19 epidemic. We obtain two epidemiological measures: the number of infections and the reproduction number. Estimations are based on death data. Hence, we expect our estimates to be more accurate than the attack rates estimated from the reported number of cases.