Herd Behaviors in Epidemics: A Dynamics-Coupled Evolutionary Games Approach

by   Shutian Liu, et al.

The recent COVID-19 pandemic has led to an increasing interest in the modeling and analysis of infectious diseases. The pandemic has made a significant impact on the way we behave and interact in our daily life. The past year has witnessed a strong interplay between human behaviors and epidemic spreading. In this paper, we propose an evolutionary game-theoretic framework to study the coupled evolutions of herd behaviors and epidemics. Our framework extends the classical degree-based mean-field epidemic model over complex networks by coupling it with the evolutionary game dynamics. The statistically equivalent individuals in a population choose their social activity intensities based on the fitness or the payoffs that depend on the state of the epidemics. Meanwhile, the spreading of the infectious disease over the complex network is reciprocally influenced by the players' social activities. We analyze the coupled dynamics by studying the stationary properties of the epidemic for a given herd behavior and the structural properties of the game for a given epidemic process. The decisions of the herd turn out to be strategic substitutes. We formulate an equivalent finite-player game and an equivalent network to represent the interactions among the finite populations. We develop structure-preserving approximation techniques to study time-dependent properties of the joint evolution of the behavioral and epidemic dynamics. The resemblance between the simulated coupled dynamics and the real COVID-19 statistics in the numerical experiments indicates the predictive power of our framework.


page 1

page 2

page 3

page 4


Coupled Evolutionary Behavioral and Disease Dynamics under Reinfection Risk

We study the interplay between epidemic dynamics and human decision maki...

Robust Stochastic Stability with Applications to Social Distancing in a Pandemic

The theory of learning in games has extensively studied situations where...

Epidemic Propagation under Evolutionary Behavioral Dynamics: Stability and Bifurcation Analysis

We consider the class of SIS epidemic models in which a large population...

EPROACH: A Population Vaccination Game for Strategic Information Design to Enable Responsible COVID Reopening

The COVID-19 lockdowns have created a significant socioeconomic impact o...

Interplay between cost and benefits triggers nontrivial vaccination uptake

The containment of epidemic spreading is a major challenge in science. V...

BESSIE: A Behavior and Epidemic Simulator for Use With Synthetic Populations

In this paper, we present BESSIE (Behavior and Epidemic Simulator for Sy...

Persistent homology and the shape of evolutionary games

For nearly three decades, spatial games have produced a wealth of insigh...

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset