Outpatient Diversion using Real-Time Length-of-Stay Predictions

by   Najiya Fatma, et al.
Indian Institute of Technology Delhi

In this work, we show how real-time length-of-stay (LOS) predictions can be used to divert outpatients from their assigned facility to other facilities with lesser congestion. We illustrate the implementation of this diversion mechanism for two primary health centers (PHCs), wherein we divert patients from their assigned PHC to the other PHC based on their predicted LOSs in both facilities. We develop a discrete-event simulation model of patient flow operations at these two PHCs in an Indian district and observe significantly longer LOSs at one of the PHCs due to disparities in the patient loads across both PHCs. We first determine the expected LOS of the patient at the point in time at which they are expected to arrive at a PHC using system state information recorded at the current time at the PHC in question. The real-time LOS predictions are generated by estimating patient wait times on a real-time basis at the queueing subsystems within the PHC. We then divert the patient to the appropriate PHC on the basis of the predicted LOS estimates at both PHCs, and show through simulation that the proposed framework leads to more equitable utilization of resources involved in provision of outpatient care.


page 1

page 2

page 3

page 4


Learning Patient Engagement in Care Management: Performance vs. Interpretability

The health outcomes of high-need patients can be substantially influence...

Probabilistic Forecasting of Patient Waiting Times in an Emergency Department

We study the estimation of the probability distribution of individual pa...

Why Machine Learning Integrated Patient Flow Simulation?

Patient flow analysis can be studied from a clinical and or operational ...

Automated, real-time hospital ICU emergency signaling: A field-level implementation

Contemporary patient surveillance systems have streamlined central surve...

Policy Interventions to Improve Inpatient Mental Healthcare Access: A Discrete Event Simulation Study

For a large portion of mental health patients, the Emergency Department ...

Estimation of Clinical Workload and Patient Activity using Deep Learning and Optical Flow

Contactless monitoring using thermal imaging has become increasingly pro...

Please sign up or login with your details

Forgot password? Click here to reset