Towards Simulation and Risk Assessment of Weather-Related Cascading Outages
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Weather and environmental factors are verified to have played significant roles in historical major cascading outages and blackouts. Therefore, in the simulation and risk assessment of cascading outages in power systems, it is necessary to consider the weather and environmental effects. This paper proposes a method for the risk assessment of weather-related cascading outages. Based on the analysis of historical outage records and temperature-dependent physical outage mechanisms of transmission lines, an outage rate model considering weather condition and conductor temperature is proposed, and the analytical form of outage probability of lines are derived. With the weather-dependent outage model, a two-stage risk assessment method based on Markovian tree (MT) search is proposed, which consists of offline full assessment, and online efficient update of risk assessment results and continued MT search using updated NWP data. The test cases on NPCC 140-bus test system model in winter and summer scenarios verify the advantages of the proposed risk assessment method in both accuracy and efficiency.
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